2019: Why APC may not retain Douglas House

It is pertinent to know that Gov­ernor Rochas Okorocha who is the Chairman of APC Gover­nors’ Forum is the only governor in the South East geo-political zone that is of APC and Imo State is the only state within the geo-political zone that has a Senator of APC extraction – that is Distin­guished Senator Benjamin Uwaju­mogu, representing the people of Okigwe Senatorial Zone.

These facts put the state in a pe­culiar political situation as a politi­cal flash point of the party within the geo-political region. The issue is that the party in the state is pres­ently engulfed in latent political wrangling, intrigues and bicker­ing that will certainly blossom in 2018. To some political pundits, it is too early to predict the future of the political party. To them, 2019 is still far and politics is a dynamic game, therefore you cannot easily predict its outcome. But to politi­cal gurus and strategists, two years is like two days as political results are mostly achieved by permuta­tions, draught and maps plotted years back.

Currently, Imo State APC is a political party under siege by political gladiators. These gladia­tors have unquenchable ambition to succeed Governor Okorocha when his constitutional two ten­ures of 8 years ends on 28th May, 2019. These men of ambition are being controlled and propelled by their financial muscles, power, ego and networks.

Patriotism here is secondary, though being promoted as the cata­lyst of their ambition. It is necessary to name these gladiators and give critical analysis of the role(s) each one of them is most likely to play that may aid in their collective ef­forts to torpedo the party’s success­ful gubernatorial ambition.

For now, the gladiators are Gover­nor Rochas Okorocha. The deputy governor of the state, Prince Eze Madumere, the chief of staff to Imo State Government, Ugwumba Uche Nwosu, the secretary to the state government, Sir George Eche, the Honourable member representing Obowo, Ehime Mbano and Ihitte Uboma Federal Constituency, Chief Chike Okafor, Hon. Emeka Nwajiu­ba, Rt. Hon. Acho Ihim the Speaker Imo House of Assembly, Sir Jude Ejiogu and Senator Godwin Ifeanyi Ararume.

One thing politically common with all these gladiators is that they belong to the same political party – APC and by all standards they are political leaders. Secondly, all of them including Governor Okoro­cha have unquenchable thirst to oc­cupy Imo State Government House by May 29th, 2019. The inclusion of Governor Okorocha may sound a surprise but his desire to produce his successor as somebody to be po­litically anointed by him is putting him under undue political pressure, even more than those on the race.

Owelle Rochas Okorocha has been the executive governor of the state since May 2011 and his con­stitutional two-terms ends on 28th May, 2019. He is futuristic politician, thus in 2014 he dumped APGA, the political platform with which he won 2011 governorship race of the state and joined APC as the newly formed mega party. Earlier before now, majority of politicians of South East extraction perceived APC as a Boko Haram political en­tity and distanced themselves from the party. Woe betides them when the new political kid on the block, ie APC won the presidential election though with abysmal performance in South East and South South geo­political zones.

Owelle Okorocha due to his welfare-oriented programmes like comprehensive free education and massive transformation of the three senatorial zones endeared himself to the masses who in turn massively voted for him and even protected the votes. This is how his second tenure ticket was secured in April 2015 gubernatorial election.

Okorocha whose governance style is alien to many as he has no respect for due process is aware of gross implications of most of his ac­tions when he leaves office on May 28, 2019 and not putting a successor of his choice, may amount to political derailment.

Secondly, he needs somebody who will continue with most of his radi­cal programmes like Community Government Council (CGC), State Development Council (SDC) and Comprehensive Free Education. Most of his programmes and policies are populist oriented.

In an effort to ensure he produced a successor in whom he will be well pleased he has hurriedly made promises to some of his aides and lieutenants that he will hand over the party gubernatorial ticket to them. In fact he has privately and publicly promised about 6 of them on indi­vidual bases to be his successor.

Already, Okorocha is apparently confused as to who will succeed him among these his aides and lieuten­ants and before the end of 2018 he is likely to be under intense political pressure that may confuse him and also weigh him down.

The confusion and pressure will lead him to make mistake that will divide the party and cause disloyalty

The governor is presently in di­lemma because anointing any of the aides at the detriment of the other he equally promised will result to bick­ering, in-fighting and disloyalty that may likely mar the party’s chances at the poll. The dropped aides will most likely see the Governor action as be­trayal and lack of confidence in them. They will then join resources and forc­es together just to discredit the gover­nor’s “anointed”. The cumulative effect will be on the party and their chances to reclaim Douglas House will be lean.

It is pertinent to inform that all the aforementioned are Governor Okoro­cha’s men whom he is enticing with APC 2019 guber ticket.

From the hindsight and impeccable sources close to the governor and his family, Okorocha and his wife as at now, are more disposed to anoint Hon. Chike Okafor who hails from Obowo in Okigwe Senatorial zone of the State and was his former Com­missioner for Finance. Okafor though a member of House of Representative he still has over bearing influence in Government House activities.

The governor’s mindset now is to give him a joint gubernatorial ticket with Ugwumba Uche Nwosu, who hails from Eziama Obaire in Nkwerre Council Area of Orlu Senatorial zone. Nwosu you recall is not only a Chief of Staff to Imo State Government, he is also an in-law to the Governor as he married Okorocha’s first beloved daughter. Okorocha is more disposed with the duo’s ticket noting that in terms of loyalty and confidence, they have been tested and trusted.

Recall also that in 2015 when Gov­ernor Okorocha contested APC Presi­dential ticket at Eagle Square, Abuja with General Muhammadu Buhari, it was Uche Nwosu that held in proxy, the party’s gubernatorial ticket for him. Thus when Okorocha came fourth on the Presidential primary, he hurriedly came down to Owerri and political arithmetic congress was arranged and hurriedly re-conducted and Nwosu willy nilly handed over the state gubernatorial ticket to him.

For students of political science, it is a mystery how one man after failing to grab his party’s presidential ticket, swiftly emerged the party gubernato­rial flag bearer for a position he never campaigned for. This gave Okorocha the acronym of political strategist. Okorocha in so many fora have said he will never hand over power to any person above the age of fifty and this gives an undue advantage to the duo at the detriment of current aspirants who are above fifty.

The only man who is independent­ly pursuing the ticket is Senator Ifeanyi Ararume and Governor Okorocha is daily having political headache with Senator Ararume’s ambition under the party. The Governor’s fears and worries lies on the fact that he is well acquainted with Senator Ararume’s political doggedness and intrigues especially in matters concerning the actualization of his political interest or ambition.

Okorocha will rather choose death than to see Senator Ararume succeed him and Ararume is seeing 2019 as his last political fight considering his age. Here lies the political debacle. Ararume’s fellowship and support­ers in the Destiny Organization are infectious and intimidating.

Certainly, APC is in serious dilem­ma of retaining Imo State Govern­ment House in 2019. The excruciat­ing economic recession, Imo citizens and Nigerian populace are subjected to notwithstanding.

The truth of the matter is that, Governor Okorocha despite politi­cal pressure and confusion will end up throwing his weight in support of one of the loyalists against Araume or any other aspirant outside his camp. Certainly this will further factional­ize and polarize the party and if not properly managed will definitely be to the advantage of the opposition.

The main political battle in APC vis-a-viz 2019 gubernatorial ticket is going to be between Governor Okorocha and Senator Ararume. Like earlier stated and envisaged, Senator Ararume will want to grab the gubernatorial ticket of the party at all cost. Ironically he has the fol­lowership, the contacts and the fi­nancial muscle.

He sees political battle as a hobby. To him, there is no compromise to his ambition. His soul is sold to the devil when it comes to political in­terest and ambition. To tell you how desperate Ararume is in his ambition to govern Imo state, he has been an active gubernatorial aspirant since 2007 he left the Senate. He has spent over N20bn in pursuing these failed projects. Most often, he has been a victim of political injustice and un­fair gang up.

Ironically, Governor Okorocha has said in so many public fora that Senator Ararume is the last person he would ever like to succeed him. The reasons are best known to him. With the posture of these two great political gladiators, APC in Imo state is already in trouble. The game here involves personality ego, pride and wit.

The implication is that if Governor Okorocha uses his clout as an incum­bent Governor and the Chairman of APC Governor’s Forum to unjustly deny desperate Ararume the ticket, the Distinguished Senator, I know, will fight dirty. He will employ all his political experiences and financial war chest to destroy APC both in Imo State and Nigeria at large. This is Ararume for you. He is a man of fu­turistic political options; he will mo­bilize and galvanize his supporters and followers to swiftly join another political party, grab the party ticket and run the gubernatorial race.

Source – The Authority