The November 8 Anambra Gubernatorial election is now a 3-horse race between the gubernatorial candidates of APGA, Labour Party, and APC. PDP postponed their primaries and nothing has been heard from the other parties. The three parties and their candidates have advantages and disadvantages going into that election.
The emergence of the three candidates, all from the Anambra South Senatorial District, is an indirect confirmation that zoning has come to stay in Anambra politics. The spirit of equity and fairness demands that power return to Anambra Central (my zone) in 2029.
So what do the parties and their candidates have going for them, and what are the challenges?
(1) APGA and their candidate Governor Soludo have the incumbent advantage. They enjoy grassroots support and the Governor will be going into the election on the back of performance and successes recorded in infrastructural development, security, etc. There is a saying in politics that elections are for the incumbents to lose meaning that the election is almost in their hands just as the English Premiership is almost in the hands of Liverpool FC. However, just like life has shown us, anything can happen. It’s not over until it’s over. After all Liverpool bottled their game on Sunday against Fulham. Governor Soludo being a Catholic is another advantage due to the Catholic church’s deeply rooted influence in Anambra politics.
(2) The Labour Party enjoys massive emotional support in the Southeast due to the Peter Obi effect. Anambra being Okwute’s home state is not any different. Their candidate George Moghalu, a veteran of politics will be hoping that the party will enjoy the wave one more time just like it did during the last general election. Chief Moghalu has over time built friendships and bridges and would have a few favours to call in from many people including people from other political parties. However, fighting an incumbent is never a tea party. Money plays big roles in Anambra elections. Those who know will tell you that voter inducement remains the order of the day. Does the Labour Party and their candidate have the war chest to execute a state-wide gubernatorial election? This is the question the party needs to answer as sympathy alone won’t be enough. Moghalu is a non-Catholic. The overbearing influence of church politics in Anambra state which many have been canvassing against may be a disadvantage. Recently a group led by Tony Ezekwelu held a press conference in the state canvassing for a conscious move to make a non-Catholic Governor. If this movement catches on, Moghalu will benefit from it.
(3) APC being the party at the Centre has the advantage of resource support. APC National if truly they have Anambra in their sights can easily mobilize funds to execute the election. The fear is that the party may go the Edo way but there have been online protests by many that ‘Anambra no be Edo’. The party at the centre tried that intimidation in the state in 2017 and 2021 but didn’t succeed. 2017 was so extreme that they withdrew all security aides attached to Governor Willie Obiano who was seeking re-election at the time. APC adopted a different tactic in 2001 and lured Governor Obiano’s deputy and most of the members of the state assembly over. It still did not work and APGA’s Soludo won. APC’s candidate Ukachukwu has a deep pocket which played a major role in his winning the primaries ticket. The party would have to find ways to appease some of its stakeholders who are disgruntled over the process and outcome of the last Gubernatorial primaries. Some of them have left the party and declared open support for other parties, especially the ruling party (APGA) in Anambra.
Ukachukwu is of the Anglican faith and faces the church politics challenge. He held a thanksgiving service at St. Faith’s Cathedral Awka following his successful gubernatorial nomination. He donated the sum of N50M to the church. Unless he has plans of also visiting a Catholic Church and doing the same, he may have already sent out the wrong signals to the Catholic community who are in the greater majority in the state.
We cannot say that the contest is too close to call. Political watchers who usually bring out their crystal balls during Anambra gubernatorial elections already have their gazes fixed on the candidate and party that they believe will be victorious.
Who is the candidate that will win the 2025 Anambra gubernatorial election? Call it!
By Ozonkpu Chief Uche Nworah Ph.D
