EXPERTS TO NIGERIANS: Prepare For The Worst

• Recession May Increase Mental Illness

•  Communicable, Non-Communicable Diseases Will Rise

•  Expect Upsurge In Bank Robberies, Kidnappings,Internet Fraud

• More Marriages To Break Up

If the figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics recently showed the first sign that the Nigerian economic is in recession, then the official confirmation, which came from the Minister of Finance, Kemi Adeosun, during the week put paid to doubts about it. Adeosun’s admission also rubbished what the minister and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor, Godwin Emefiele, had over a month ago said was a “technical” slump.

Expect upsurge in bank robberies, kidnappings, internet fraud

However, experts from different fields in the country have been reacting to this new development. For instance, Dr. Ona Ekhomu, a management and security consultant, described the situation as very unfortunate.

Ekhomu said that it is a situation which many countries do not pray for because when there is recession, there are job losses, there is inflation or hyperinflation. He feared that disposable income will be limited in the circumstance, which has the tendency to raise the bar in both crimes and criminality. “We have a peculiar situation here in Nigeria right now where we are fighting two high intensity wars and low intensity wars.

The Boko Haram sect in the North-East and the Niger-Delta militants, are high intensity conflicts going on right now with the military battling to curtail them. “The herdsmen and kidnappers causing havoc everywhere could be regarded as low intensity conflicts because they are sporadic and isolated.

When you add insufficient disposable income from people, you have a very toxic situation, because even when things were good, we had a lot of criminalities, a lot of insecurity in the land. You can imagine what it would be now that the country’s economy is officially in recession.”

Ekhomu who is Nigeria’s first chartered security professional and president of the Association of Industrial Security and Safety Operators of Nigeria (AISSON), advised Nigerians to be more security alert, more security aware and do more to protect their assets.

He believes with the present situation, not only kidnappers, armed robbers and terrorists that would be raving the land now. “There are also the fraudsters. There will be an increase of people trying to dupe others through BVN, cybercrime and so on. I see a situation where banks would be targeted because that is where the money is. Although, it has been a trend for a while now but I think it is going to increase,” he said.

Increase in mental illness

Also speaking on the issue, a formerly national commissioner with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), senior lecturer and formerly head of department of sociology at the University of Lagos, Prof Lai Olurode, expressed similar fears. He said that the effects of the sociological implication are in dimensions.

The first, according to him, is on the impact on human welfare. “How is it going to affect, knowing already we have over 50 per cent or more of Nigerians actually living below one dollar a day. “So, the bottom line is what you need to exist as a decent human being would become very difficult for you to navigate to action. The basic thing you need to have like water, soap, ingredient, brush your teeth… the prices will go up. So, what option do you have?

You will then begin to look for alternative which are not easy to come by. “We have little money in our pocket; the purchasing power will be very low and that will now create a kind of psychology imbalance and disorder.

This invariably will send many people to mental homes for therapy and care. “Also, social outing will be reduced like birthdays; parties will go down. And people in terms of the commitment to immediate and extended families and social obligations may also be watered down; they may become difficult to maintain. Also, immediate and extended family may become difficult to maintain.”

More marriages will break up

Gbemisola Omoniyi, a consultant female child psychiatrist at the Federal Psychiatric Hospital, Yaba, appears to corroborate this assertion when she stated that from the psychologist point of view, the recession will trigger loads of frustration, people’s apprehension and anxiety.

Omoniyi said that this will also cause people to become unduly hostile because of the nature of the things happening around the economy. “By the time you go to the market, everything is inflated. It appears that people are having a very difficult time.

So eventually, they are hostile; people are frustrated. “It reduces their motivation to achieve other things. Once you cannot achieve the basic need of life: clothing, food, shelter and other simple things, people are no longer motivated.

They become easily depressed. As such, the rate of having mental disorders increases in the community. People can’t send their children to schools they would want to send them to. Some even have to withdraw their children from school.

Eventually, on the family, there is a lot of anger, a lot of anxiety, people become unduly irritable. “The direct relationship is the fact that things are a bit more difficult and far above the means of the reach of the common man.

Even the rich are complaining. Once you cannot achieve the things you hope you would have achieved, you become frustrated, you become easily angry. There are the issues individuals begin to experience as a whole.

“Within the family, there is a lot of dissensions, a lot of fights occur; things you would not have argued about makes you argue. It affects people; people begin to worry a lot. They are apprehensive. It eventually begins to affect their sleep. It affects motivation; leads to depression and all that and may eventually lead many to mental homes. Those are the consequences it would have on the individuals.”

Communicable, non-communicable diseases will rise

Also, Dr. Osahon Enabulele, former National President, Nigerian Medical Association (NMA), and consultant family physician at the University of Benin Teaching Hospital (UBTH), toed the same line of argument. He said Nigerians don’t need to consult any oracle to know that the current economic challenges will have a very tremendous impact on the lives and wellbeing of the people.

Enabulele said that what is happening now will gradually expose Nigerians to some shocking sensations, especially as to the fact that, because of the economic hardship, the purchasing power of Nigerians has been greatly undermined.

The government, according to him, needs to come out with a clear, consistent, possible direction and enlightenment of Nigerians in order to get them to understand what is really going on. “Health wise, for instance, even before now, we were battling with Nigerians indulging in what one can describe as catastrophic expenditure in terms of pocket spending.

Now, with the economy this way, you can imagine what it would look like. It’s going to be worse off. They can’t even now afford to purchase those medications prescribed by their physician. You’re going to have more Nigerians unable to take care of themselves.

“If we are not proactive enough, we may find a situation whereby more families and household records many more ailments and of course, that would increase the burden of disease, both (communicable and none-communicable) and consequently, that will affect the life expectancy which is about an average of 53 to 54 years now. That certainly is not going to be a good trend for Nigeria.

More people may contemplate suicide

For Dr. Alex Igundunse, a socio-psychologist at the University of Lagos, “it will create a lot of anxiety. This is because that will get a lot of people thinking. “Apart from that, it can lead some people right into depression because if the economy is depressed, also trying to translate their thinking can lead to the psychological depression of some people because it gives them hopes in terms of how they can quickly loose it and all that kind of thing. At the extreme, more people may contemplate suicide as a way of their problems.”

Announcement of renewed poverty

And Dr. Adeyeye Arigbabuwo, current chairman of the Association of the General Medical Practitioners, Lagos State and a national executive member of the Executive Council of Health Care Providers Union of Nigeria, is no different in his views. He said that the summary of what has been declared is an announcement of renewed poverty. It is like telling the nation, “we are a very poor nation,” Arigbabuwo stated. “And what does that mean? It means we should be conscious of things happening around us and therefore, we should begin to adopt new methods of living. And begin to structure the way we even live as a family.”

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