IMF raises Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.4%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 upward to 4.4 per cent, up from the 4.2 per cent projected in October 2025.

9news Nigeria reports that the revised outlook was published in the IMF’s January 2026 update of the World Economic Outlook, which was unveiled on Monday.

The Fund said the upgrade to Nigeria’s outlook forms part of its wider assessment of global economic conditions, which it expects to remain relatively stable in the coming years.

Data from the report suggest that Nigeria’s improved projection is consistent with gradual but broad-based economic strengthening across the region rather than an isolated upward review.

Nigeria’s revised forecast builds on a period of significant economic adjustment, marked by policy reforms and sustained efforts to restore macroeconomic balance.

In its October 2025 World Economic Outlook, the IMF had projected Nigeria’s 2026 growth at 4.2 per cent, citing lingering concerns over inflationary pressures, fiscal challenges and structural constraints.

Since then, policymakers have continued to pursue reforms aimed at strengthening fiscal coordination, stabilising the macroeconomic environment and improving productivity across key sectors of the economy.

The IMF has repeatedly stressed the importance of structural reforms in driving sustainable growth across emerging and developing economies, including Nigeria.

The modest upward revision reflects cautious optimism that ongoing reforms could gradually translate into stronger economic performance if effectively implemented.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, regional growth was revised upward from 4.0 per cent to 4.1 per cent for 2025, and from 4.3 per cent to 4.4 per cent for 2026, indicating a broadly shared recovery trend across the region.

At the global level, the Fund projected growth of 3.3 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027, broadly in line with the estimated 3.3 per cent outturn for 2025.

According to the IMF, this relative stability reflects a balance between headwinds from shifting trade policies and tailwinds from technology-driven investments, including artificial intelligence, alongside accommodative financial conditions.

Global inflation is expected to continue on a downward path, with headline inflation projected to decline from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 3.8 per cent in 2026, and further to 3.4 per cent in 2027