The Future of the Nigerian Economy Under Tinubu: Challenges and Opportunities

Nigeria, the largest economy and most populous country in Africa, has faced significant challenges in recent years. There are several key factors that have contributed to the underperformance of the Nigerian economy, including political context, economic overview, development challenges, and recent macroeconomic and financial developments. However, amidst these challenges, there are also opportunities for growth and transformation. In this article, we will explore the future of the Nigerian economy, highlighting the challenges it faces and the potential solutions to position it on a path of sustained growth, transformation, and diversification.

Political Context

Nigeria is a multi-ethnic, multi-religious and culturally diverse federation of 36 autonomous states and the Federal Capital Territory. The political landscape is dominated by the ruling All Progressives Congress party (APC), which controls the executive arm of government and holds the majority of seats in both the Senate and House of Representatives. The high level of insecurity resulting from violent crimes and political unrest in different parts of the country has added to the challenges faced by the country.

The challenges are internationally perceived as serious threats that deprecate the trust of foreign investors and tourists.

The Boko Haram Islamic extremist group has continued causing havoc in Northern Nigeria; While Bandit groups have continued to carry out widespread killings, kidnappings, and looting across several states in Nigeria’s northwest region.

Armed robbery, kidnapping and ritual killings in the West and other parts of southern Nigeria have been rhetorically tackled with reckless abandon.

The insecurity and fear caused by separatist agitation in the southeast is another core back-breaker to the economic growth prospect especially in the Southeast.

Economic Overview

High oil prices in recent years have not translated into economic stability for Nigeria. Macroeconomic stability has weakened, and the declining oil production, costly petrol subsidy, exchange rate distortions, and high inflation have all contributed to the deteriorating economic environment. This has led to an increase in poverty levels, regional inequality, and social and political unrest. The Nigerian economy is projected to grow at a modest rate in the coming years, driven by services, trade, and manufacturing.

Development Challenges

Nigeria faces significant development challenges that hinder its progress. The country’s human capital development ranks low compared to other nations, with high levels of poverty, inequality, and limited job opportunities. In addition, climate change and extreme weather events have had adverse effects on food production and nutrition. To address these challenges, critical macroeconomic and structural policy reforms are needed. These reforms should focus on eliminating petrol subsidies, adopting a market-responsive exchange rate, reducing inflation, increasing non-oil revenues, and addressing major constraints to productivity, such as infrastructure gaps and insecurity.

Recent Macroeconomic and Financial Developments

In recent years, Nigeria has experienced a slowdown in economic growth, primarily due to a decline in oil production, widespread flooding, and rising costs. The industry sector has been particularly affected, while services and agriculture have seen some growth. Inflation has reached a two-decade high, leading to an increase in the policy rate to curb rising prices. The country’s fiscal deficit has narrowed but remains financed by borrowing, resulting in a rise in public debt. Oil production, which is a significant source of government revenue, has declined, contributing to foreign exchange shortages.

Outlook and Risks

The outlook for the Nigerian economy remains subdued, with modest GDP growth and elevated inflation projected for the coming years. Efforts to shore up domestic food supply and contractionary monetary policy are expected to impact inflation rates. The planned removal of the petrol subsidy and increased revenue could narrow the fiscal deficit, but risks such as insecurity and social resistance to subsidy removal persist. Resolving the court challenge of the 2023 presidential election peacefully could boost investment and strengthen Nigeria’s democracy.

Climate Change Issues and Policy Options

Nigeria, with its abundant natural resources, has the potential for sustainable and inclusive green growth. Exploiting the country’s gas reserves and addressing gas flaring can support the transition to clean energy. Nigeria also has opportunities in the development of solid and critical minerals, such as lithium, which can drive green development and create green jobs. However, there is a need for a blueprint to attract green financing and investment. Nigeria requires significant climate finance to implement its Nationally Determined Contribution, with a focus on clean energy and other sectors.

Improving Ease of Doing Business

One critical lever for Nigeria’s economic growth is improving the ease of doing business. The country currently faces obstacles such as corrupt practices, inadequate infrastructure, trade barriers, and limited foreign exchange capacity. Addressing these issues will require reforms in customs regulation and policy, trade capacity building, and private sector support. Simplifying business regulations, streamlining customs processes, and attracting investments are vital for creating a favorable business environment.

Enhancing Labor Productivity

Enhancing labor productivity is another key aspect of Nigeria’s economic development. Currently, a large percentage of the workforce is employed in low-productivity sectors such as agriculture and non-tradable services. This limits income growth and poverty reduction. To address this, investments in vocational and technical training, skills development, and job creation are necessary. Upskilling young Nigerians, especially in digital skills, is crucial for embracing the potential of the tradable services sector and driving technological advancements.

Reducing Corruption Perception

Corruption has been a significant challenge to Nigeria’s economic development. To improve the overall level of corruption perception, strong transparent governance and anti-corruption measures are essential. Strengthening institutions, promoting transparency, and enforcing accountability can help combat corruption. Additionally, creating a policy environment that supports small businesses and provides access to market-driven vocational training can contribute to reducing corruption and promoting inclusive economic growth.

Conclusion

The future of the Nigerian economy is marked by both challenges and opportunities. Addressing issues such as political unrest, wanton crime, systemic corruption, economic instability, and development challenges requires a comprehensive approach that encompasses macroeconomic and structural reforms. Improving the ease of doing business, enhancing labor productivity, and reducing corruption perception are critical levers for Nigeria’s economic growth.

By implementing these measures, Nigeria can position itself for sustained growth, transformation, and diversification, ultimately achieving a high human development status and improving the lives of its people.

Disclaimer from 9News Nigeria Business Editorials: The information presented in this article is based on relevant sources and analysis. However, it is important to note that economic conditions and policies can change over time, and the future trajectory of the Nigerian economy may be subject to various factors and uncertainties.

By Mr Obinna Ejianya (9News Nigeria – Melbourne, Australia)

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