Besides Egypt , which already has a confirmed case of the novel coronavirus (COVID – 19), researchers and the World Health Organisation (WHO) have identified Algeria and South Africa as African countries most at risk while Nigeria , Ethiopia, Sudan , Angola , Tanzania , Ghana and Kenya as having moderate chance of importing the virus .
The researchers, in a study published in Nature , said they were most concerned about Nigeria , Ethiopia, Sudan , Angola , Tanzania , Ghana and Kenya because of their weak healthcare systems, low economic status and unstable political situation which make them highly vulnerable.
WHO Director General , Dr . Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, had said the agency ’s decision to declare the outbreak a global health emergency , was mainly based on concerns that the epidemic could spread in nations with fragile healthcare platforms .
For that reason , researchers are also worried about the disease spreading among people in Africa.
An epidemiologist at the Harvard T .H . Chan School of Public Health, United States and a co- author of the Harvard team ’s model, Marc Lipsitch , said though Africa was not as exposed to the ailment as those nations in South East Asia due to direct international flights from Wuhan .
But, he nonetheless feared that a large number of Chinese labourers on the continent and their travels between China and Africa were a possible route for transmission.
The analysis , posted on medRxiv, examined flights to Africa from Chinese cities that had reported infections, but it excluded towns in Hubei province, where Wuhan is located , because of the lockdown that has restricted travels from many locations there since late January .
Vittoria Colizza, who models infectious diseases at the Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health in Paris , France and a co- author of the Africa study , however , said Egypt , Algeria and South Africa have the capacity to respond effectively to an outbreak.
Colizza and her colleagues said Nigeria , Ethiopia , Sudan , Angola , Tanzania , Ghana and Kenya , except Sudan , are among 14 African nations that WHO had identified as being at high risk of importing the virus because they receive direct flights from China , or as a result of high volume of travellers .
A spokesperson for global agency in Geneva , Switzerland, Tarik Jašarevic , said the organisation was working with the affected countries to rapidly detect any potential cases , adding that the nations in question also needed to increase their preparedness.
