Nigeria’s economic trajectory over the past two decades has seen significant fluctuations, with GDP per capita rising and falling under different administrations.
The latest projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggest a continued decline.
Obasanjo Era (1999–2007): A Period of Growth
When President Olusegun Obasanjo took office in 1999, Nigeria’s GDP per capita stood at $494.
By the time he left in 2007, it had surged to $1,876, reflecting strong economic reforms, debt relief, and increased oil revenues.
Yar’Adua’s Short-Lived Tenure (2007–2010): Growth Continues
President Umaru Yar’Adua inherited an economy on an upward trajectory, with GDP per capita at $1,876 in 2007.
By 2010, this figure had risen to $2,280, supported by oil revenue inflows and ongoing policy reforms.
Jonathan Administration (2010–2015): Peak Performance
Under President Goodluck Jonathan, Nigeria’s GDP per capita saw further growth, reaching $2,680 by 2015.
This period benefited from high oil prices and economic diversification efforts.
Buhari Administration (2015–2023): A Sharp Decline
President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure saw a reversal of these gains, with GDP per capita falling from $2,680 in 2015 to $1,621 in 2023.
Economic recessions, declining oil prices, inflation, and policy uncertainties contributed to this decline.
Tinubu Administration (2023–Present): IMF Projects Further Decline
President Bola Tinubu assumed office in 2023 with GDP per capita at $1,621.
However, the IMF projects a further drop to $1,077 by 2025. Factors such as subsidy removal, currency devaluation, inflation, and economic instability are expected to impact growth.
The projected decline raises concerns about Nigeria’s economic resilience and the effectiveness of current policies.
Recent surveys suggest that structural reforms, increased industrialization, and improved fiscal policies are essential to reversing the downward trend.
Meanwhile, in addressing these challenges, the Tinubu administration has embarked on a series of economic reforms:
- Fuel Subsidy Removal: In a bid to free up government revenue for infrastructure and social services, the administration eliminated fuel subsidies, a move that initially caused hardship but is expected to improve fiscal stability in the long run.
- Forex Market Reforms: The government has introduced a managed float exchange rate system to stabilize the naira and attract foreign investment.
- Industrialization Drive: Policies promoting local manufacturing and value addition in key sectors like agriculture, solid minerals, and technology are being implemented.
- Investment in Infrastructure: The administration has prioritized road, rail, and power sector investments to stimulate economic growth.
- Social Intervention Programs: Efforts to support small businesses, improve healthcare access, and provide targeted palliatives to vulnerable Nigerians are ongoing.
9News Nigeria exclusive report.
