🟢 Recall that Iran launched 181 Ballistic Missiles at Israel.

Iran’s Great Ballistic Missile Attack Gamble

The October 1 attack by Iran is its largest gamble yet. It knows Israel is primed to respond. It knows that Israel has backing from the West. It also knows Israel significantly weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, removing two of the Iranian-backed fronts against Israel. Nevertheless, Iran’s regime believes it is stronger than it was in the past and ready to confront Israel.

by Seth J. Frantzman Follow @sfrantzman on TwitterL

On October 1, Iran launched 181 ballistic missiles at Israel. Israel was prepared for the escalation, having learned of it earlier in the day from the United States. Israel’s Home Front Command warned the country’s almost ten million people to prepare to go to their local bomb shelters. Shortly after the warning, Iran’s ballistic missiles streaked across the sky, targeting several locations in the Negev and in central Israel. Iran knew it was gambling with this attack, and it has tried to deter an Israeli response by claiming that it will attack with “an even more crushing and stronger response” next time.

Israel has vowed a harsher response to this attack than the previous one in April when Iran launched more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel. Iran has been gambling and testing Israel over the past year. Over the past decade, the Islamic Republic has increased its capabilities to strike at Israel. It has expanded its ballistic missile arsenal and improved its range and precision. It has also invested heavily in kamikaze drones. It has exported both its missile and drone technology to proxies in the region, such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. It has also moved drones and ballistic missiles to aligned militias in Iraq. This has had deadly results. Kataib Hezbollah, one of the militias backed by Iran in Iraq, killed three U.S. soldiers in a January drone attack in Jordan.

Iran’s decision to arm its proxies and test its weapons through them generally has come without a cost. For instance, Iran attacked Saudi Arabia directly in 2019, targeting the Abqaiq energy complex with drones and cruise missiles. The Houthis also attacked Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah intervened in the Syrian civil war. The Iran-backed militias in Iraq have attacked U.S. forces hundreds of times since 2019. These attacks led President Trump to order the assassination of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike in 2020. In the car with Soleimani was Kataib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Iran then retaliated for that attack by launching ballistic missiles at the Asad base in Iraq, targeting U.S. forces there.

2024. It has also used missiles against Kurdish dissidents in Iraq. It also monitored how the Houthis used long-range missiles against Saudi Arabia. The Houthi war on Saudi Arabia led to a ceasefire in 2022 and Saudi Arabia’s reconciliation with Iran in 2023. This is how Iran feels that its threats result in appeasement. Iran also feels empowered because it has exported drones to Russia for use against Ukraine. Iran-Russia relations are expanding, Iran’s state media reported on October 3. Iran, therefore, feels it has more support than ever before to confront Israel directly. It feels the Gulf states will not oppose its actions because of fears they may become embroiled themselves. It believes it has ringed Israel with proxies.

Iran’s gamble faces hurdles. Israel’s strikes on Hezbollah in the last two weeks of September have weakened Hezbollah. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed on September 27. The IDF launched 1,600 airstrikes on Hezbollah on September 23. Israel also launched a ground operation against the Iranian-backed group. Now, the IDF has two divisions in southern Lebanon, slogging through Lebanese villages seeking out Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure.

The October 1 attack by Iran is its largest gamble yet. It knows Israel is primed to respond. It knows that Israel has backing from the West. It also knows Israel greatly weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, removing two of the Iranian-backed fronts against Israel. Nevertheless, Iran’s regime believes it is stronger than it was in the past and ready to confront Israel. It assumes that the West is also weaker, and a multi-polar world order with Russia and China balancing the United States may benefit from its provocative ballistic missile attacks.