2027: Mountains before Tinubu, how they ‘ll affect all elections

By Samuel Abasiekong-Abasiekong

The Hallmark of all elections rests on who has majority of votes.

And considering the present variables and the ongoing horse trading in the opposition, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC), the 2027 presidential and other elections are already won by one of the parties.

As it stands today, the ruling APC rules indeed with 30 governors expected to mobilize voters for their party in 30 states.

But in the other hand, these governors are thoroughly incapacitated as they only control the elites and metropolitan politicians, while the poor masses, millions of Nigerians who are still feeling the heat, the insecurity, the hunger, the weight of heavy tax and other anti-people policies. Majority of Nigerian suffering from these pains administered by the APC government are not in the 30 governors dragnet.

Nigerians suffering from APC economic austerity are over 70% in all states in southern Nigeria, and in the North they are above 80%.

The social media and all mainstream media houses in Nigeria and beyond the shores of the country are reporting everyday that President Bola Hamed Tinubu has lost the North, and that is the fact.

Survival in Nigeria is a little beat easier in the South, but in all 19 states of the North, poverty walks the street like human.

In 2014, the entire North moved against Goodluck Ebele Jonathan because the incumbent president Bola Hamed Tinubu and others work on the perception of ‘the majority North’ about Jonathan and they reject him. Now the table has turned against Tinubu who championed his rejection.

HOW IS THE NORTH A MOUNTAIN BEFORE TINUBU
In terms of population in Nigeria today, the 19 Northern constitute 52% while the South is 48%.

But when it comes to mobilization of voters northerners do it better while the South resort to apathy.

The apathy in the South puts the voting its strength at 44% in the 2015 general election and the entire North recorded 58%. That was why late President Muhammadu Buhari won, and Goodluck Ebele Jonathan lost.

If not for some clauses of the electoral law, the North may not need the South to win a presidential election in Nigeria, but it is a must for the South to go begging for votes in the North.

One of them is that for one to be declared the winner of a presidential election in Nigeria, a candidate must score the highest number of votes and obtain at least 25% of the votes cast in at least 24 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). If not for this clause of the Electoral Act, the North wouldn’t have need of the South to win a presidential election.

And again looking at the political awareness of the entire North and their style of mobilization of voters which put them at 58%, plus the fact that Tinubu will likely not have the votes of the South East which was 10% in 2015, and with the ongoing 2027 electioneering witch hunting of the opposition by APC, over 80% of the South East electorates will vote ADC. With this, where would APC gets majority of votes?

Tinubu may not also have all the 15% votes of the South-South. And considering that he lost in Lagos in 2023, he may likely not have the whole 17% votes of the South-West.

The mountains before Tinubu and APC are very tall. And the ongoing victimization of opposition parties in the country by the ruling APC heightens mountains Tinubu has to sumount.

And again if Tinubu loses the North support before election as indicators are already showing, he will likely lose the presidential election of January 16, 2027. And if that happens, the gubernatorial election of February 6, will be a walk over for the opposition in all APC states in Nigeria.