Indonesia Election: Joko Widodo on course for victory as election results roll in

“Enough data has entered to depict a clear picture,” said Kevin O’Rourke, a political analyst and author of the Indonesia-focused newsletter Reformasi Weekly.

“The victory for Widodo is not resounding, as he failed to attain the psychological 60 percent level that had seemed within reach. Prabowo performed better than expected, which may embolden him to run yet again in 2024, if he is sufficiently fit,” O’Rourke said.

A former furniture-maker who grew up in a riverside slum and the first national leader to come from outside the political and military elite. Popularly known as Jokowi, his everyman image resonated in 2014 with voters tired of the old guard.

That election was also a contest with Prabowo, former son-in-law of military strongman Suharto who was overthrown in 1998.

The popular vote gap between the two men five years ago was about 6 percentage points.

The eight-hour vote on Wednesday for both the presidency and legislature seats across a country that stretches more than 5,000 km (3,000 miles) from its western to eastern tips was both a Herculean logistical feat and testimony to the resilience of democracy two decades after authoritarianism was defeated.

The poll followed a campaign dominated by economic issues but was also marked by the growing influence of conservative Islam in the world’s biggest Muslim-majority nation.

A senior government official close to the president said before the election that a win for Widodo with 52-55 percent of the vote would be a “sweet spot”, and enough of a mandate to press on with, and even accelerate, reforms.

However, a Widodo campaign aide said the president’s victory appeared far from convincing.

“It’s a slim margin … a very difficult win,” said the aide, who declined to be identified.

“Jokowi’s programmes are long term. Most people don’t yet feel the benefits of the last five years. It’s amazing people still support him for the long term.”

FRAUD CONCERNS

The official election results will not be published until May. Any disputes can be taken to the Constitutional Court where a nine-judge panel will have 14 days to rule on them.

More than 10,000 volunteers crowd-sourced results posted at polling stations in a real-time bid to thwart attempts at fraud.

However, even before the election, the opposition alleged voter-list irregularities that it said could affect millions and vowed legal or “people power” action if its concerns were ignored.

Widodo campaigned on his record of deregulation and improving infrastructure, calling his first term a step to tackling inequality and poverty in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy.

But religion has also been a factor. Conservative Muslim groups have been increasingly influential.

Widodo, a moderate Muslim from Java island, had to burnish his Islamic credentials after smear campaigns and hoax stories accused him of being anti-Islam, a communist or too close to China, all politically damaging in Indonesia. He picked Islamic cleric Ma’ruf Amin, 76, as his running mate.

Prabowo, a former special forces commander who has links to some hardline Muslim groups, and his running mate, business entrepreneur Sandiaga Uno, pledged to boost the economy by slashing taxes and cutting food prices.