In the wake of President Joe Biden’s ultimatum to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the United States is eagerly awaiting Netanyahu’s response, which will determine the course of US-Israel relations. Biden’s strong stance on changing Israel’s approach to the conflict in Gaza has put both his credibility and America’s reputation on the line.
The US president has called for specific and measurable actions from Netanyahu to alleviate civilian suffering and ensure the protection of aid workers in Gaza. Failure to comply with these demands would force Biden into a difficult decision. Will he allow Netanyahu to continue defying international expectations, risking political backlash from progressive, Arab American, and young voters in his reelection year? Or will Biden take the momentous step of conditioning US support for Israel, considering the significant loss of life caused by the war triggered by Hamas attacks?
There are early signs that Biden’s message may be resonating. The Israeli security cabinet has approved steps to reopen the Erez crossing between Israel and the northern Gaza Strip, potentially facilitating the flow of humanitarian aid into the region. However, a sustained shift in Israel’s approach is necessary to address criticism of Netanyahu and alleviate Biden’s domestic political pressures.
The recent deaths of aid workers in Gaza, along with the mounting civilian casualties, have intensified the urgency of the situation. The US administration is now openly considering conditionality in its support for Israel, with Secretary of State Antony Blinken stating that there will be changes in US policy if necessary actions are not taken. Some prominent Democrats, including Senator Chris Coons, have even suggested imposing limits on the use of US-manufactured weapons by the Israel Defense Forces.
While the White House has expressed frustration with Israeli tactics in the past, it has been unable to exert significant leverage on the prime minister. This latest attempt to influence Israeli policy represents a significant departure, and failure to yield results could strain the US-Israel alliance further.
Biden’s need to appease factions within his Democratic coalition has played a role in the administration’s public approach. By emphasizing the call’s outcome and issuing public statements, the US seeks to control the narrative before Israel presents its version of events. However, the administration remains committed to Israel’s security, acknowledging the threats it faces from Iran.
The divergence between Biden and Netanyahu is not merely personal but stems from differing political and national security interests. Biden is under pressure to end the war due to political repercussions within his coalition and the upcoming 2024 election. Netanyahu, on the other hand, may see value in prolonging the conflict, with an election on the horizon and a focus on accountability for recent terror attacks.
Netanyahu’s strategy of disregarding US concerns has been notable in recent months. However, Israel’s growing international isolation and the critical importance of US support make open defiance of a US president a substantial risk. A potential breaking point looms as the US warns against an Israeli offensive in Rafah without adequate safeguards for civilians.
If Netanyahu fails to heed Biden’s warnings, the US president will be compelled to take action, imposing consequences on the Israeli prime minister. Although he maintains a strong emotional bond with Israel, Biden’s political imperatives and the escalating humanitarian crisis in Gaza push him toward a fateful crossroads. Ultimately, it is up to Netanyahu to determine which path he will choose, with far-reaching implications for US-Israel relations.
Source: CNN/9News Nigeria
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