By Samuel Abasiekong-Abasiekong
In Nigeria today, the 19 Northern states constitute 52% votes while the South is 48%.
The North does not need the South to win a presidential election in Nigeria, but it is a must for the South to go begging for votes in the North.
If not for the fact that, to be declared the winner of a presidential election in Nigeria, a candidate must score the highest number of votes and obtain at least 25% of the votes cast in at least 24 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), the North may not need the South to win a presidential election.
And looking at the buildup of the coming 2027 presidential election, the whole North is gradually becoming one front.
As it stands today, the North has chosen the African Democratic Congress ADC as the political elevation they all want to stand to sweep votes all over Nigeria.
And if the North succeeds to chase Tinubu out on Saturday 16th January 2027, the ripple effect of that victory will be visited negatively on all APC governors on Saturday, 6th February 2027.
This is feasible as we all notice that everyday, at the thick of the clock, the ADC rank is swelling. And the daily growing population of this party in all Northern states is frightening to All Progressive Congress APC governors and most of them are already working under cover for ADC. The Southern governors seems not to be bothered, but yet they will certainly be visited by the sins of APC, if Tinubu loses.
Use your fingers to count the ADC success in the North. Katsina for instance which is the second largest state in the North after Kano is completely overruned by ADC.
The next largest state in terms of population in the North is Kaduna. Here, the APC is just a nomenclature. Even where Southern Kaduna may not agree with the Nasir El-rufai, the ADC controller of this state, the scars of terrorism and christian genocide may not allow them (southern Kaduna) to bring back APC who made them tearing since Muhammadu Buhari and Bola Hamed Tinubu administrations.
An summarily, the loyalty of all APC governors to their party in the North is in doubt. Let’s consider Kano for instance which is a major determinant of who wins the presidential election in Nigeria.
Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf is married to Hajiya Maryam Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who is Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso’s daughter with whom he has four children namely Muhammad Kabiru, Fatima, Aisha, and Khadija.
Yusuf has worked with Kwankwaso in various capacities, serving as personal assistant, principal private secretary, and commissioner during his father-in-law governorship terms.
Their rift they assume to have is cosmetic and it is absolutely for the camera, and it cannot encroach into the Kwankwaso’s dynasty and the northern interest. At the moment Umar Ganduje cannot influence anything for APC in Kano as his eldest son Abdulaziz Umar Ganduje a 2023 House of Representative aspirant who lost in that election has decamped to ADC.
On the whole, APC has lost Kano and the entire North. This is the graphic demonstration of how ADC is controlled in the North:
Nasir El-rufai, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, Abubakar Malami and others have their fingers on the remote control of ADC mobilization of the North West.
The North East is controlled by Atiku Abubakar, Aminu Tambuwal, Babachir Lawal and others
The North Central is controlled by David Mark, Dino Milaye, Ireti Kingibe who is the Senator representing FCT and others.
And because the 2027 presidential is almost becoming ‘a do or die affair’ for the North who is determined to rescue their region from an alleged marginalization, the voting shall be directed by the Caliphate, religious leaders and notable political heavy weight at all levels to ensure Tinubu does not win anywhere in the North.
And if Tinubu is kicked out on the Presidential election day, the collateral effect of his misfortune will be visited on almost all the 30 APC governors on the next election that will hold on February 6, 2027.
If Tinubu will be able to garner 10% of the northern votes, the ADC will recover the lost votes of the North in the South East.
Considering the interest of the South-East to govern Nigeria, and the unconfirmed claim that Peter Obi won the 2023 presidential election and he was rigged out in favour of Tinubu, the ADC will be massively voted in the South-East, and the APC votes will be very much insignificant in that region.
Nasir El-rufai has once said that, by their calculation, Tinubu will come third with some miserable votes in the forthcoming 2027 presidential election.
El-rufai said so because they foresaw the northern acceptance of the party and in the other hand the acceptance of their presidential candidate.
And like what happened in 2023, APC will likely not win in Lagos and Abuja.
This is because Lagos is majorly populated by South-Easterner and many who feel the heat and the pains of Tinubu biting economy. And the inhabitants of Abuja are the principal protesters demanding for the end of his government. And their protests have really impacted negatively on the people of these two cities who are awaiting to reply Tinubu through the ballot
South-South states such as Rivers, Delta, Edo, Bayelsa are ADC strongholds. Tinubu may not have a handful of votes in those states.
In the whole of this region only Akwa Ibom and Cross River may give APC votes, but these votes may not lead him anywhere due to its lost in many others states including some in the South-West.
And looking at why opposition parties lost in 2023 presidential election, they have decided to come as a front to dislodge the APC
In 2023, Tinubu won Atiku Abubakar with 1,810,206. Tinubu scored 8,794,726 and the latter 6,984,520.
Peter Obi scored 6,101,533 and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso scored 1,496,687.
If one puts all of the opposition votes together it will amount to 14,582,740.
This is what the coalition means for themselves and they will not get anything less than 14,582,740 vote.
And if in the reverse Tinubu scores this and in the reverse the opposite scores less, it will be impossible for the Independent National Electoral Commission INEC to explain.
Moreso that it is already glaring that the North with it largest number of registered voters does not want Tinubu back. To this effect, if Tinubu is declared the winner in 2027, Nigeria will need God to speak to the opposition and the youth.
