APC Presidential Primaries: A Clash of the Titans

Barring last minute postponement, the long awaited presidential primaries of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) which was earlier slated to hold at the Eagles Square, in Abuja, on May 29 and 30, 2022 is now expected to hold on June 07 and 08, 2022.

However, there are indications that all is not well within the party, especially with the recent clash amongst some of the bigwigs in the party which has brought to the public the crises they have been managing internally before now.

Recall that, for the past few days, the social media has been littered with comments attributed to one of the leading aspirants in the party and a former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, while addressing a group of people in one of his campaign tours to Abeokuta, Ogun State.

In the video which is going viral on social media, with comedians now making jokes out of it through different versions, Tinubu went as far as saying, President Muhammadu Buhari would not have become the president without his support, having tried and failed three times in the past. He added that President Buhari even prostrated in tears, begging him to endorse him for the presidency.

He also said it was the turn of Yoruba race to produce the next president of the country, not only that, but that he is the most qualified and it is his turn to rule.

Reacting to Tinibu’s comments, the National Chairman of APC, Abdulahi Adamu, described the statement as insulting, and unbecoming for a person of Asiwaju to do that to a sitting president produced by the votes of APC.

According to Adamu, the party takes exception to this and it doesn’t show any appreciable level of respect for the office of Mr President and the person of Mr President therefore. He said even though he (Tinubu) has been making efforts to retract the statement, that effort is not adequate as it does not wipe out the impression that event has left in people’s minds, saying that as the chairman of the ruling party, he has a duty to come out and stand by the government.

The Chairman therefore vowed that Tinubu and any other person fund guilty of such offence won’t go unpunished.

With this reaction from Adamu, many believe that he’s acting on President Buhari’s script and will work towards ensuring that the anointed candidate of the president emerges the party’s flag bearer in the forthcoming presidential primary election.

Although, as promised during an interview with journalists in January, President Buhari has not revealed the name of the candidate who he would prefer to succeed him when he leaves office in 2023 for the fear of such individual been eliminated, It is becoming obvious everyday that Tinubu is not Buhari’s choice as it has been speculated that he (Buhari) does not in any way share the same ideologies and philosophies with him.

After the news of Northern aspirants stepping down for their southern counterparts last weekend broke out, some aspirants have been rumoured to be the likely choice of the president. These include, Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo, Former ministers, Rotimi Amaechi, and Ogbonnaya Onu, who were until recently, the Minister of Transportation and Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation respectively.

A vast majority of political analysts have however said the Vice President, Yemi Osinbajo is most likely the anointed candidate of the president, having studied his (the president’s) body language.

Recall that the President has recently called the Progressive governors to a meeting at the presidential Villa in Abuja, where he urged them to allow him choose his successor the same way he has allowed them to choose theirs.

According to him, “Our objective must be the victory of our party and our choice of candidate must be someone who would give the Nigerian masses a sense of victory and confidence even before the elections.”

Apparently, being the President’s preferred candidate is, more or less, all it will take to emerge the APC’s presidential candidate for the 2023 elections, this many of the aspirants are aware of.

Consultation is still ongoing for aspirants to arrive at a consensus candidates. However, it’s been speculated that if the efforts to agree on consensus proved abortive, it won’t still stop the president’s anointed successor from emerging as such candidate will definitely enjoy the support of the party’s leaders to ensure he/she emerges victorious even in a free and fair election.

The recent outburst of Tinubu cannot be unconnected to the fact that the body language of the President and that of the Party’s National Chairman doesn’t seem to be in his favour and it became became glaring through the reactions that trailed the outburst.

Consequently, the former Director General of PGF and National Vice Chairman, APC North West, Dr. Salihu Lukman, who is allegedly one of the loyalists of Tinubu has said though it is unfortunate Tinubu made those statements, it is his right to express his frustration and should be recognised as such.

He added, “The opinion expressed by Abdullahi Adamu was his personal opinion and it is his own right to present it to any organ of the party for consideration. But until that opinion is adopted by the organ of the party, it cannot be considered as the position of the party. It is not the position of the APC; it is his personal opinion.”

Same Lukman had earlier on the 27th of May, 2022 in a leaked letter, warned that the ruling party may soon slip into crisis accusing Adamu of taking decisions without carrying other members of the National Working Committee along.

Few days later, another letter jointly signed by some NWC’s members accusing the chairman of being a dictator and making them redundant also surfaced.

These and many more are the reasons many believe Senator Adamu is working towards ensuring that the anointed candidate of the president emerges the winner of the party’s presidential primary election.

Some media reports also have it that the refusal of the president to sign the amended new Electoral Act 2022 passed by the National Assembly is a calculated attempt against Tinubu.

The new Electoral Act 2022 doesn’t allow voting by statutory delegates in political party primary elections, as a result, public officials such as the President, Vice President, members of the National Assembly, Governors and their Deputies, members of the State Houses of Assembly, Chairman of Councils, Councillors, members of the national working committee, amongst others, who are regarded as statutory delegates in political parties, would not vote in the presidential primary election.

With statutory delegates ‘disenfranchised’ by the Electoral Act 2022, the number of delegates that would vote in the APC primary election has dropped from 7,800 to 2,340.

The 2,340 are made up of three elected adhoc delegates from each of the 774 local government areas (LGAs) in the country and the six Federal Capital Territory (FCT) area councils.

Also, analysts believe that this non-participation of statutory delegates will affect some aspirants, especially Tinubu whose major stronghold is Lagos. Lagos has a large number of APC public officials and if statutory delegates were to be involved in the primary election, the state will have about 304 delegates. But without statutory delegates, as dictated by the Electoral Act 2022, Lagos is going to the primary election with just 60 delegates — three delegates each from its 20 LGAs.

Going by the previous computation that included statutory delegates, Lagos was among the top five states with the highest number of delegates. But without the statutory delegates, the state is now occupying the 19th position in the number of delegates.

North-West has the largest number of delegates at APC presidential primary. A breakdown of the number of delegates that would represent the various states and the FCT in the APC presidential primary election shows that the North-West has the highest number with a total of 558 delegates.

The South-West is second with 411 delegates, followed by South-South with 369 delegates. The North-Central occupies the 4th position with 363 delegates. The North-East is next with 336 delegates.

The South-East, with 288, has the lowest number of delegates that will be voting in the APC presidential primary election.

It has indeed been a clash of the titans and Nigerians are eagerly waiting to see the candidate APC will present as its flag bearer to contend with the likes of the former Vice president, Atiku Abubakar of People’s Democratic Party, former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi of Labour Party, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso of New Nigeria Peoples Party, amongst other opponents in the forthcoming 2023 general elections

Will APC survive denying Bola Ahmed Tinubu its ticket? If BAT loses to the anointed candidate in a free and fair election, won’t that be the end of his godfatherism? Will BAT test his popularity by contesting under another party? Who is this anointed candidate? These and many other questions are still begging for answers as Nigerians are on the march again to elect a new president.