**SAMPSON ENYONGEKERE, UYO
In view of fluctuating oil prices, rising inflation, undulations in the naira value, and the rapid rate of decline of Nigeria’s foreign reserve, an economic enthusiast and adjunct Professor of the North Dakota University, USA, Engr. (Dr.) Wisdom Patrick Enang is of the opinion that the nation’s economy is at a crossroads, and would benefit immensely from currency swaps.Dr. Enang stated this on Friday, February 7, while speaking with newsmen in Uyo, the Akwa Ibom State capital.
In his opening remarks, the astute scholar noted that Nigeria, despite being Africa’s largest economy, faces the challenge of reducing its over-reliance on volatile oil revenues, and finding more sustainable mechanisms for trade and investment.
Expatiating further, the revered policy strategist adduced that currency swap agreements, if well implemented, offers one such avenue, yet they are underutilized in the country’s economic policy toolkit.
“The central proposition here is simply that Nigeria should consider negotiating mutually-beneficial currency swap agreements with other key economic partners aside China, like India, Russia, South Africa, Germany and Italy.”“These arrangements would allow Nigeria hedge against the risk of exchange rate volatility, and the risk of high interest rates on foreign currency loan repayments, in addition to reducing the nation’s dependency on the dollar for international trade and its resultant strain on the nation’s foreign exchange reserve.
”On the situation of things surrounding Nigeria’s foreign exchange reserve, the revered policy strategist explained that the nation’s reserve was disproportionately dependent on oil exports which accounts for over 90% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings. He further bemoaned that this unhealthy dependence has resulted in Nigeria’s financial uncertainties in recent times.
“When oil prices dip, reserves fall, leaving the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with little leeway to stabilize the naira sustainably.”“Contextually speaking, in 2023, the vulnerability in context was laid bare, as the naira depreciated sharply, driven primarily by limited dollar liquidity.
The sustained currency depreciation has since translated into the subsisting hyperinflation and diminished standard of living for millions of Nigerians.”“As already proposed, diversification of trade settlement methods including leveraging on currency swaps could offer an effective safeguard against external macro-economic shocks.”
“More so, it will also lower trade deficits, and external debt accumulation which has long plagued Nigeria’s balance of payments, in addition to facilitating a more effective and efficient deployment of monetary policies and FX market interventions to dissuade speculative practices and restore confidence in the Nigerian FX market.”
In the same vein, the multiple excellence award winner praised Nigeria’s recent renewal of the 15-billion-yuan currency swap agreement with China, even as he termed it a modest solution to a far larger challenge, calling instead for Nigeria to expand this model which has been successfully implemented since 2018 to other major trading partners like India, Russia and South Africa.“Nigeria’s substantial imports of pharmaceuticals, machinery and technology from India could be repurposed to benefit from a naira-rupee swap arrangement.
Similarly, the same trade settlement approach could be applied to agricultural and military equipment imports from Russia.”“Generally speaking, strengthening economic relations with South Africa, Europe and other key emerging markets would offer new pathways for economic growth and stability for Nigeria.”“By diversifying trade agreements and engaging in mutually beneficial economic arrangements with countries like India, Russia and South Africa, Nigeria could secure more foreign direct investments and enhance its role within key global economic platforms such as BRICS.”The Akwa Ibom born, British trained Chartered Engineer also argued that aside economic considerations, currency swaps could reinforce Nigeria’s geopolitical standing from a diplomatic standpoint.
“The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) further supports the case for intra-African trade agreements in local currencies, which would further bolster Nigeria’s standing in the region.”“Cognizant of this, the Nigerian government must act quickly and direct the CBN to prioritize the negotiation of additional currency swap agreements with its key trading partners.
”Speaking further, the Ethical and Attitudinal Reorientation Czar stressed that the private sector has an important role to play by embracing currency swap agreements to strengthen trade competitiveness. He also harped on transparency as a key imperative for the success of currency swaps, describing it as critical.
“The Nigerian government must ensure that currency swap negotiations are transparent, credible, and conducted with due diligence to yield optimal implementation outcomes for the nation.
”In a final analysis, the Fellow of both the Nigerian Society of Engineers (FNSE) and the Nigerian Institution of Safety Engineers (FNISafetyE) submitted that Nigeria stands at a crucial juncture in its economic development, which emphasizes the need for currency swap agreements to be considered beyond the rhetoric of ‘economic convenience’ since they are strategic imperatives in the global economic landscape.
“This strategic shift will not only bolster economic resilience, but will also pave the way for a more sustainable and equitable national economic growth trajectory.”“To squander this pivotal opportunity would be to perpetuate the nation’s vulnerability to external economic shocks, thus hindering its aspirations for long-term prosperity and effective regional leadership. The time for decisive action is now!”
