Chronicle of Kaduna Casualties, Disasters in Tinubu’s Administration

… October 24 APC Presidential Campaign Flag-Off in Kaduna, Questions To Answer

From the Tudun Biri drone strike and bandit attacks to deadly air raids, kidnappings and devastating floods, Kaduna State continues to face a mounting humanitarian and security crisis as questions grow over accountability, victims’ compensation and the Federal Government’s response.

Kaduna State has endured a series of deadly security incidents, military airstrikes, kidnappings and natural disasters since President Bola Ahmed Tinubu assumed office on May 29, 2023.

The tragedies have left families grieving, communities displaced and residents struggling to rebuild their lives. They have also intensified public debate over the protection of civilians, the effectiveness of security operations and the government’s response to victims.

An opinion article by Mohammed Bello Doka, published on October 11, 2026, raises questions about President Tinubu’s engagement with Kaduna’s victims and the timing of political activities in the state ahead of the 2027 general elections.

A review of reported incidents and official records provides a broader picture of the challenges confronting Kaduna, while highlighting the need to distinguish confirmed casualty figures from allegations and disputed accounts.

TUDUN BIRI: AT LEAST 85 CIVILIANS KILLED IN MILITARY DRONE STRIKE

The most prominent tragedy in the chronology occurred on December 3, 2023, when a Nigerian Army drone struck Tudun Biri community in Igabi Local Government Area during a religious gathering marking the birthday of Prophet Muhammad.

The operation was reportedly intended to target armed groups. Instead, it killed at least 85 civilians, according to early casualty figures, although subsequent reports put the death toll above 100. Women and children were among the victims.

The incident triggered nationwide outrage and renewed scrutiny of the military’s use of aerial weapons in civilian-populated areas.

The Nigerian military acknowledged that the strike was a mistake and said an investigation would be conducted. The incident became one of the most prominent examples of civilian casualties arising from Nigeria’s counterterrorism operations.

President Tinubu subsequently directed the rebuilding of the community under the Resettlement Scheme for Persons Impacted by Conflict.

In January 2026, Vice-President Kashim Shettima commissioned the resettlement project, which included approximately 133 housing units, educational facilities and other infrastructure. Kaduna State Government interventions included a six-kilometre access road, a primary healthcare centre and a skills acquisition centre.

Although the reconstruction represents a significant intervention, questions remain about the full extent of compensation, long-term livelihood restoration and accountability for the loss of innocent lives.

The rebuilding of homes cannot, by itself, resolve the grief of families who lost relatives or settle questions about how the deadly operational error occurred.

SEPTEMBER 2024: ANOTHER DEADLY AIRSTRIKE IN GIWA

Barely ten months after the Tudun Biri tragedy, another military airstrike reportedly killed at least 24 people in Jika da Kolo village, Giwa Local Government Area, on September 27, 2024.

Residents and a local councillor told Reuters that the strike hit a mosque where people had gathered. They disputed the suggestion that the immediate target area was being used by bandits.

The Nigerian Air Force said the operation was based on intelligence and surveillance, while announcing an investigation into the allegations.

The incident reinforced concerns about target identification, intelligence verification and civilian protection during military operations.

Human Rights Watch called for an investigation, justice for victims and stronger safeguards against further civilian casualties.

For residents of Kaduna, the repeated occurrence of deadly airstrikes has raised questions about whether lessons from earlier incidents are being adequately implemented.

SEPTEMBER 2025: DEADLY ATTACK AND ABDUCTIONS IN KACHIA

Kaduna’s security crisis also continued through attacks attributed to armed bandits.

On September 7, 2025, armed men reportedly attacked Wakeh and Gadaneji communities in Agunu Ward, Kachia Local Government Area.

Local reports indicated that at least eight people were killed and more than 20 wounded. Residents were also reportedly abducted during the attacks.

An International Organization for Migration (IOM) situation report subsequently recorded that the September 7 incident affected 152 people from 25 households, including 63 males and 89 females.

The report documented eight fatalities and nine injuries. It also recorded damage to two shelters.

An important distinction: The figure of 152 refers to people affected by the incident, not 152 confirmed abductees. The available IOM report does not establish that all 152 people were kidnapped.

The attacks illustrate the continuing vulnerability of rural communities where armed groups can strike settlements, kill residents and disrupt livelihoods.

For affected families, the consequences extend beyond immediate casualties to include trauma, medical expenses, loss of income and fear of returning to farms and homes.

AUGUST 2024: KAJURU COMMUNITIES ATTACKED

Kajuru Local Government Area has also experienced violence attributed to armed groups.

According to the article by Doka, an attack in August 2024 killed four people, injured three and resulted in the abduction of 37 residents.

The incident forms part of the wider pattern of insecurity affecting rural communities across Kaduna State.

Such attacks place additional pressure on security agencies and local authorities while disrupting farming, trading, schooling and other essential activities.

The absence of lasting security in affected areas can also discourage investment and force families to relocate, even when they have not been formally registered as displaced persons.

JULY 2025: RAINSTORMS AND FLOODING DISPLACE THOUSANDS

Beyond armed violence, extreme weather has compounded the suffering of residents.

Doka’s article reports that windstorms and heavy rainfall affected five local government areas in Kaduna State in July 2025, killing six people and displacing 6,172 residents.

The reported destruction added to the burden on households already dealing with insecurity, poverty and disrupted economic activity.

Displacement can leave families without adequate shelter, clean water, sanitation and reliable access to healthcare. Damage to roads, homes and farms can also undermine recovery long after the rain has stopped.

The casualty and displacement figures cited for the July storms require further corroboration from a detailed official disaster assessment.

SEPTEMBER 2025: FLOODING AFFECTS HUNDREDS IN ZARIA

Another documented disaster occurred on September 11, 2025, when flooding affected communities in Tudun Wada Ward of Zaria Local Government Area.

An IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix report recorded 476 people affected across 270 households. It identified 64 damaged shelters and 71 casualties, all classified as injuries, with no deaths reported in that assessment.

The report identified urgent needs involving water, sanitation and hygiene, healthcare, shelter and non-food items.

The incident demonstrated how flooding can create humanitarian emergencies even in communities not directly affected by armed conflict.

For vulnerable households, repeated disasters can exhaust savings, destroy possessions and deepen dependence on government relief and humanitarian assistance.

NORTHWEST NIGERIA’S WIDER KIDNAPPING CRISIS

Kaduna’s security challenges form part of a wider crisis across northwestern Nigeria.

Human Rights Watch, citing research by SBM Intelligence, reported that 2,938 people were kidnapped across the Northwest between July 2024 and June 2025.

Kaduna accounted for 629 reported kidnappings, behind Zamfara’s 1,203 and ahead of Katsina’s 566 and Sokoto’s 358. The Northwest total represented more than 60 per cent of the nationwide kidnapping figure cited in the report.

These figures illustrate the scale of the challenge facing security agencies, although kidnapping totals do not capture every unreported incident or necessarily establish how many victims remain in captivity.

The consequences extend beyond the victims themselves. Families often face ransom demands, while businesses, schools and agricultural communities struggle with fear and uncertainty.

The sustained threat also raises questions about intelligence gathering, policing, military coordination, prosecution of perpetrators and the protection of remote settlements.

POVERTY, FOOD INSECURITY AND OUT-OF-SCHOOL CHILDREN

Insecurity has unfolded alongside longstanding social and economic difficulties across the Northwest.

Doka’s article cites figures on multidimensional poverty, food insecurity and school attendance to argue that millions of people face overlapping disadvantages.

These challenges should not be attributed to one administration alone. Poverty, weak educational access, rural underdevelopment and banditry have roots that predate Tinubu’s presidency.

Nevertheless, the Federal Government is responsible for its own security and development policies, while the Kaduna State Government has responsibilities in education, public welfare and local development.

The central test is whether policies produce measurable improvements in people’s lives.

For communities affected by violence, that means safer roads, functioning schools, accessible healthcare, protected farms, reliable emergency response and economic opportunities that allow displaced residents to return home.

TINUBU’S KADUNA VISITS: PROJECTS AND QUESTIONS OF PRESENCE

The opinion article argues that President Tinubu has not demonstrated sufficient personal engagement with victims of Kaduna’s major tragedies.

It contrasts the president’s reported visits to the state for project inaugurations and private engagements with the absence of a personal visit to several communities affected by killings, kidnappings and flooding.

The article specifically identifies a June 2025 working visit during which projects associated largely with Governor Uba Sani’s administration were inaugurated.

Contemporary reports confirm that Tinubu visited Kaduna on June 19, 2025, to inaugurate development projects, including a 300-bed specialist hospital, a vocational training institute and road infrastructure.

The distinction matters because the central issues are not only where the president physically appeared, but also whether victims received timely assistance, whether perpetrators were held accountable and whether preventive measures reduced the risk of further tragedies.

TUDUN BIRI RECONSTRUCTION AND THE MANDO-BIRNIN GWARI ROAD

Federal infrastructure projects have also featured prominently in the administration’s engagement with Kaduna.

In August 2026, the Federal Government flagged off the reconstruction of the 122-kilometre Kaduna–Mando–Birnin Gwari Road.

The Ministry of Information said the project had a 24-month completion period, meaning its planned delivery would extend into 2028 if the schedule remained unchanged. The government described the road as important for regional connectivity, trade, agriculture and security.

The project could improve access to rural communities and support economic activity. However, its ultimate impact will depend on completion, quality, maintenance and the security conditions along the route.

Similarly, the Tudun Biri reconstruction programme demonstrates that the administration has undertaken a response to at least one major tragedy.

The remaining questions concern the completeness of victim support, the transparency of implementation, the provision of lasting livelihoods and whether lessons from the airstrike have translated into safer military operations.

LAGOS PROJECTS AND THE DEBATE OVER DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES

Doka also compares the administration’s infrastructure projects in Lagos with the continuing insecurity and humanitarian challenges in Kaduna.

The comparison raises a legitimate question about how federal infrastructure spending is distributed across regions and whether public investment adequately reflects areas facing acute security and humanitarian needs.

However, individual projects differ in funding arrangements, planning stages, costs and implementation timelines. A comprehensive assessment would require verified expenditure records and comparable information on federal projects across states.

The relevant question is therefore not simply whether Lagos has received major infrastructure investments, but whether Kaduna and other affected states are receiving sufficient, effective and equitable attention across security, disaster response, social services and economic development.

OCTOBER 24 CAMPAIGN FLAG-OFF RAISES POLITICAL QUESTIONS

The debate has gained added significance following the announcement that the All Progressives Congress (APC) intends to begin Tinubu’s 2027 re-election campaign in Kaduna.

On October 9, 2026, APC Presidential Campaign Council Director-General Abdulaziz Yari announced that the campaign would be formally launched in Kaduna on October 24. He also said the campaign council would hold its inaugural meeting on October 14.

The decision places Kaduna’s record of insecurity and civilian suffering within the political conversation ahead of the election.

For residents affected by killings, kidnappings and disasters, the campaign presents an opportunity to demand clear answers on security, compensation, emergency response and the delivery of promised infrastructure.

It also raises questions about what measurable commitments the president and his party will present, how those commitments will be funded and how their implementation will be monitored.

The campaign announcement alone does not establish that Kaduna was selected for political reasons connected to its tragedies. But the choice of venue makes the state’s unresolved challenges difficult to ignore.

ACCOUNTABILITY, JUSTICE AND THE ROAD AHEAD

The chronology of tragedies in Kaduna under Tinubu’s administration reveals several overlapping problems: civilian deaths during military operations, continued attacks by armed groups, kidnapping, flood-related displacement and the economic vulnerability of affected communities.

The administration cannot be held responsible for every disaster or every act of violence simply because it occurred during its tenure. Yet the government can be assessed on its response, the effectiveness of its policies, the prevention of foreseeable harm and its willingness to ensure accountability.

For military airstrike victims, this means credible investigations, transparent findings, appropriate compensation and safeguards to prevent similar mistakes.

For communities attacked by bandits, it means effective protection, rescue operations, prosecution of perpetrators and support for displaced families.

For flood victims, it means early-warning systems, drainage improvements, emergency shelters and timely relief.

For rural communities, it also means sustained investment in education, healthcare, roads and livelihoods.

The January 2026 commissioning of the Tudun Biri resettlement project and the August 2026 road reconstruction flag-off are developments that should be assessed alongside the administration’s wider security and humanitarian record.

Ultimately, the people of Kaduna need more than campaign promises. They need evidence that government action is reducing deaths, preventing abductions, protecting homes and farms, restoring livelihoods and ensuring justice for victims.

As the 2027 election approaches, the most important question is whether the federal and state governments can demonstrate tangible improvements in the safety and living conditions of Kaduna residents.

The answer will depend not on campaign speeches alone, but on verifiable results, transparent accountability and the experiences of communities that have endured the state’s repeated tragedies.